Infographic: a breakdown of the 2020 Argentine Congress
With the final vote count official and Alberto Fernández’s 8-point victory over Mauricio Macri in the presidential first round now confirmed, projections over who will control Congress since December 10 can now be done safely.
According to figures from Parlamentario.com, Peronism will have to work a bit harder than expected after the first round results, but it will still hold a clear majority in the Senate, controlling 39 out of its 72 seats. Even if the Peronist caucus is not fully homogeneous internally, with some historically closer to the governors and others allied to former president Cristina Kirchner (who, as the new VP, will also serve as the president of the Upper House), the coalition has enough votes to pass any bills with no need to negotiate with outsiders as long as it remains united.
In the Lower Chamber, things are not quite the same. The Frente de Todos‘ internal groups are too many to plot on a graph, with some responding to Fernández’s prodigal son Sergio Massa, others to social movements, traditional Peronists, Buenos Aires city progressives, the Kirchnerite La Cámpora youth group and more. But negotiations with non-aligned provinces and even with the national opposition might be inevitable here, as the 109 + 7 closest to Alberto Fernández are not enough to reach a majority of 129.
Roberto Lavagna’s centrist Consenso Federal, regional Peronist leaders like those of Córdoba, San Luis, Misiones or Peronist-like regional parties like Neuquén’s Movimiento Popular Neuquino will be crucial to form a majority here.
Some even believe that the highly-fragmented opposition could have lawmakers up for grabs, be that on a bill-by-bill basis or as part of a more permanent majority. Outgoing President Mauricio Macri has been reportedly focusing on keeping his coalition from disbanding over the last few days, reaching out to discontents like Emilio Monzó, a Peronist within the Cambiemos coalition who frequently acts as a middleman between them and their political rivals, and is often seen with suspicion by politicians on both sides of the aisle.
In any case, the opposition will also be needed to make legal appointments that require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, so their position will clearly not be possible to ignore.