Who would control Congress based on Sunday’s results?

15th August 2019

By The Essential Staff

Who would control Congress based on Sunday’s results?

The primaries do not serve to directly elect which candidate ends up in each congressional seat. But if this Sunday’s results are repeated in October, when the general election takes place, then they can serve to predict how many seats will each party get.

Despite a great election, the Alberto Fernández-led Frente de Todos coalition would not add a significant enough amount of seats to hold a majority in the House of Representatives, although it could get there through negotiations with minority parties.

</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <img class="wp-image-2873 aligncenter" src="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/congress-300x220.jpg" alt="How the House of Representatives and the Senate would look with a repeat of August's results" width="623" height="457" srcset="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/congress-300x220.jpg 300w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/congress-768x563.jpg 768w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/congress-1024x751.jpg 1024w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/congress-600x440.jpg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 623px) 100vw, 623px" /> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In order to achieve the much touted “unity of Peronism”, the Frente Para la Victoria sealed alliances with parties that had relevant caucuses in the Lower House. These include Argentina Federal, Sergio Massa’s Frente Renovador and Felipe Solá’s Red por Argentina. Altogether they will have 114 members, enough to make it the largest group in the House and 15 seats away from the simple majority needed to pass most bills: 129.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Frente de Todos would not have issues getting the remaining bodies: the governor of Santiago del Estero -and therefore his 7 lawmakers- is a close ally of the kirchnerite camp and the smaller blocs tend to support the larger ones, especially the incumbent, in exchange for concessions. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Contrary to what the moral impact of the election suggests, Juntos por el Cambio would not lose any seats, but actually win some. 6, to be precise: its caucus will go from 106 to 112 members. However, it is not clear whether the coalition would manage to stay as such in the event of a demoralizing loss like last Sunday’s.</span></p> <h2>Majority in the Senate</h2> <p>As for the 72-member Senate<span style="font-weight: 400;">, the Frente de Todos will easily hold a majority. Since most senators answer to their respective governors, and most of them are allied with Alberto Fernández, all Peronists could present a united front and pass their legislative agenda through the Upper House.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Peronist governors, led until recently by Juntos por el Cambio’s current vice presidential candidate Miguel Pichetto, had 24 votes. Cristina Kirchner’s Unidad Ciudadana had nine. Now, not only will they unite, but they would also hold on to all their seats and add seven more from the different provinces in which their candidates came out in first place — earning two seats — or in second  — earning one. They are: Silvia Sapag (Neuquén);  Claudia Ledesma Abdala de Zamora and José Neder (Santiago del Estero) José Alperovich and Beatriz Mirkin (Tucumán); and Eugenia Catalfamo (San Luis).</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Juntos por el Cambio, on its end, would jump from 25 to 30 seats. However, and same as in its lower counterpart, the unity of the caucus will largely depend on the way in which the government handles the general elections and its aftermath. The two remaining senators — from Misiones province — are likely to be closer to the Frente de Todos. </span></p> <p>

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The Essential Staff

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