Infographic: Can Peronism regain its grip on Buenos Aires?

8th August 2019

By The Essential Staff

Infographic: Can Peronism regain its grip on Buenos Aires?

Buenos Aires province has the reputation of being an historic Peronist stronghold, and the charts below back up that notion. But the latest results have given their rivals hope that the trend is changing.

They also suggest that, even if Peronism gets more votes for president in the province by a comfortable margin, and even if their gubernatorial hopeful Axel Kicillof takes a narrow advantage over María Eugenia Vidal this Sunday, Vidal can still be re-elected in October as long as the margin is not too big.

</p> <img class="wp-image-2661 aligncenter" src="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1933AB2E-71BF-4229-A0E2-8A04D575B9C6-300x272.jpeg" alt="The graph and table show how Peronism has historically won in the province, with exceptions in 1983 and 2015" width="656" height="595" srcset="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1933AB2E-71BF-4229-A0E2-8A04D575B9C6-300x272.jpeg 300w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1933AB2E-71BF-4229-A0E2-8A04D575B9C6-768x696.jpeg 768w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1933AB2E-71BF-4229-A0E2-8A04D575B9C6-1024x928.jpeg 1024w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/1933AB2E-71BF-4229-A0E2-8A04D575B9C6-600x543.jpeg 600w" sizes="(max-width: 656px) 100vw, 656px" /> <p>Both in 2015 and 2017, Vidal (and her relatively unknown protégé Esteban Bullrich) got less votes than Peronism in the primaries, but turned it around in October to win the gubernatorial race first and the two Buenos Aires province senatorial seats later.</p> <p>Vidal&#8217;s 10-point gain of 2015 will be hard to repeat, as it was aided by the victory of the highly unpopular Kirchnerite Aníbal Fernández (not to be confused with current presidential hopeful Alberto) in the Peronist primaries. But even Bullrich in 2017 got a +4 points swing against Cristina Kirchner between both elections.</p> <p>The data also suggests that the nature of the provincial elections has changed significantly. Peronism was used to landslides, with 30 to 40 points as the margin of victory. This, combined with unlimited re-elections in the municipalities, which were abolished by Vidal, led to a base of power that looked almost impossible to challenge.</p> <p>The Peronist political machine in the province is now feeling endangered, although Buenos Aires&#8217; demographics will always mean that a party focused on the working class and the poor has a good chance against others representing the middle classes.</p> <p>

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The Essential Staff

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