Infographic: Polls show Macri close to Fernández ahead of primaries

25th July 2019

By The Essential Staff

Infographic: Polls show Macri close to Fernández ahead of primaries

With only two weeks to go before Argentina’s primary elections, the hunt for any kind of anticipatory data is fully on. Market forecasts, experts’ opinions and of course polls are everywhere, and it’s hard to keep track of all of them.

</p> <p>Below is a compilation of the latest numbers from 18 different pollsters distributed or leaked to the media over the last few days.</p> <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1654" src="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407.jpg" alt="" width="2575" height="2075" srcset="https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407.jpg 2575w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407-600x483.jpg 600w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407-300x242.jpg 300w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407-768x619.jpg 768w, https://gettheessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/FINALGRAPHIC-2407-1024x825.jpg 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 2575px) 100vw, 2575px" /> <p>According to a simple average, Mauricio Macri is now 3.7 percentage points below Alberto Fernández. That average does not weight pollsters according to their track record, so it should not be taken at face value, although it does reveal aspects of how the race is shaping.</p> <p>The narrative that Macri&#8217;s re-election chances have improved over the last couple of months seems to be backed by polls such as Isonomía&#8217;s, who now goes as far as saying the race is tied in the first round. Only a few months ago, an Isonomía poll saying Macri was down significantly even in a runoff helped trigger a <a href="https://gettheessential.com/economy/2019/04/25/bonds-collapse-brings-back-talk-of-debt-restructuring">selloff of Argentine bonds</a>, which are seen as more likely to undergo a restructuring process under a Fernández-Fernández presidency.</p> <p>Overall, a narrow defeat by 3 to 4 points in the first of three rounds of voting would not be seen as too damaging for Macri&#8217;s chances, unless Fernández gets close to the 45 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Macri is currently seen as a <a href="https://gettheessential.com/economy/2019/07/11/macri-election-favorite-argentina-market-odds-winning-presidential-race">(slight) favorite for re-election</a> by market analysts, but the race is too close to call and many months still lie between today and November&#8217;s potential runoff.

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The Essential Staff

The Essential is a premium subscription-based news platform that brings you high quality journalism and in-depth coverage in English about the changing face of Argentina’s politics and economy.